History is testimony of the powers of love; the rise and fall of nations, heroes spurred into action and righteous sacrifice in the name of a beloved. But we look back through rose coloured glasses. If it the cold hard facts of love you're after, then look no further than recent research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA), in conjunction with Roy Morgan.

According to the research, Australian are on their way to spending $415 million on Valentine Day gifts this year. A whopping $135 million of that comes from the pockets of those aged between 25-34, whose contribution is higher than any other age group, followed by a healthy $129 million from those aged 35-49.

While it can be challenging to pick a perfect present for your own significant other, trying to score with the markets can be even more mystifying.

Luckily, we've got the numbers handy to guide us through these tunnels of love.

Historical ASX Performance

We've all heard it: past performance is not indicative of future performance. But still, to get a gauge of what we can expect from the markets around V Day, it's always interesting to look at the data.

Looking back to 2012, there's a clear trend of the ASX 200 doing better on week of Valentine's than the week before on average, by 0.68%. The biggest rise in the last decade came in 2014, when the market's heart swelled 3.12%.

So what actually happens on Valentine's Day week? On average, close to nothing. Looking at how the market closed on Monday and Friday from 2012 “ 2021, there's an average of a 0.01% increase.

But that isn't the full picture. V Day week only closed out lower than it opened four times, but one year was a doozy; in 2016 the ASX 200 saw a plunge of 4.22%, which outweighs most gains. Even 2014's 3.06% increase.

The Classics

Most lovers aren't looking to make any significant contributions to the folklore of romantic gestures. The tried and tested combo of flowers and chocolate will be well represented this February 14, with 39% of those surveyed planning to go the floral route, and 28% sticking to chocolate, food, or alcohol.

That's good news for ASX newcomers Lynch Group (ASX: LGL), an Australian flower grower and wholesaler that came within sneezing distance of their lowest price to date in January. Supermarkets like Woolworths (ASX: WOW) and Coles (ASX: COL) (both of which stock Lynch Group flowers) will no doubt benefit from the last-minute rush as all those Cadbury Casanovas descend on February 13. Looking further afield, there likely to be kisses aplenty, courtesy of global chocolate giant Hershey (NYSE: HSY).

One Night Only

It seems the pandemic continues to affect consumer confidence when it comes to dining out, with a mere 8% of survey participants expressing any interest in heading to a restaurant for the special day. But that doesn't mean wining and dining won'tbe on the agenda, it'll just be done at home.

And for those dining at home Uber (NYSE: UBER) and their Uber Eats subsidiary are likely to be the dish du jour. An interesting note for investors? Uber share price reached annual highs around the week of February 14 in 2020 (just under $40 USD) and 2021 (around $61 USD). And this year, they've been climbing since January 28.

Cupid might also land a big one on Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE). January drop put a dip in TWE prices, but still leaves them in a strong position year-on-year. It's a similar story for Australian Vintage (ASX: AVG), which saw a jump of around 10% between February 12 and 17 in 2021.

High End

Despite the heavy presence of jewelry advertising this time of year, only 9% of those surveyed were expecting to splash out on this category. But given the higher purchase price compared to a box of chocolates, that metric may be a little misleading. It may be worth considering that the ARA survey was limited to Australians, which could still see Michael Hill International Ltd. (ASX: MHJ) in a comfortable place, thanks to its retail presence both locally and in North America.

Overall, the lure of luxury retail goods remains strong; so strong, in fact, that Chanel have been able to raise prices of some of its most recognisable handbags by as much as 60% since November 2019. Whether this is a true reflection of production costs and exchange rate fluctuations or not, it a good sign that brands are confident in the lure of luxury.

All things considered, LVMH (EPA: LVMH), formally known as Moƫt Hennessy Louis Vuitton, have all bases covered this V-day with both their luxury retail and alcohol offerings.

Discreetly Packaged Pleasure

We won't beat around the bush too much here, plenty of folks will be inviting some new pleasure aids into their lives this Valentine Day (but you already knew that). And yes, there are listed companies whose stocks rise when you do. Delecta Limited (ASX: DLC), for example, will be cashing in on kink through sales in erotic toys via both its brick and mortar and online sex shops. And if that not up your alley, it also into mining and exploration (no, those aren't euphemisms, they're also ploughing holes for uranium).

If it a romantic return you're looking for this Valentine Day, there are plenty to be had. A quick look at the research has revealed several categories to keep an eye on, and maybe even offset that V Day spending of your own.

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