Markets Week Ahead: Will the RBA maintain a hawkish outlook?
Rene Anthony
Key takeaways:
The RBA meets on Tuesday as investors await another rate hike
The local share market is poised to rebound when the new trading week commences, with US indexes rallying despite calls that rates may need to remain higher.
Economic Calendar and News
It the biggest story on the local economic calendar, and probably the biggest talking point at the dinner tables of households around the country. The Reserve Bank of Australia will convene for its March Board meeting on Tuesday, with all forecasts pointing to another rate hike.
If the RBA does hike as expected, it will be the tenth consecutive interest rate hike. Economists predict the hike will be a 25 basis point increase, which would result in a decade-high official cash rate of 3.6%. That would confirm the fastest monetary tightening campaign since the RBA set an inflation target in the early 1990s.
Financial markets anticipate this won'tbe the last of the central bank rate hikes, but further clues may be found in the accompanying statement following the Board meeting.
If the RBA seeks to wind back the hawkish rhetoric it introduced last time around, or even allude to a preset path, that may provide encouragement to investors and traders. However, if the RBA maintains wording to the effect that further rate hikes are necessary over the coming months, that may prompt a muted or cautious response.
At the same time, RBA Governor Philip Lowe will also feature at The Australian Financial Review Business Summit on Wednesday, so reporters may press the under-fire figurehead over the interest rate outlook and recent economic data.Overseas, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony at Capitol Hill. That follows comments last week from former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Fed Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly, who both made the case for higher rates given the strength of the jobs market.But the jobs market will gain focus in its own right this week. Look out for fresh data covering job openings, private sector payrolls, nonfarm payrolls, and the national employment report. The consensus view is that the unemployment rate will remain steady at 3.4% amid 200,000 new hires.Also on the agenda this week is President Biden budget proposal for the upcoming fiscal year, where increased taxes for high-income earners have been suggested as a potential initiative.
Stocks on watch
With the RBA all but certain to hike rates again this week, the nation largest banks are likely to be a major focal point. Facing political pressure, observers will be watching how quickly the banks pass on higher interest rates to borrowers, and to what extent.
We recently saw Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) hike rates out of cycle for one of its loan products. On the other side of the equation, it remains to be seen how much of said rate hike is passed onto savers. There has been growing pressure for the banks to pass on full interest rate hikes to individuals with savings accounts, albeit this is something that stands to weigh on net interest margin growth. Nonetheless, Bank of Queensland (ASX: BOQ) is one institution that has been passing on higher rates to younger savers, including an out-of-cycle boost just last week to lead the market with a savings rate of 5.15% for individuals aged 18-35.A potential watch-point for the market will be supermarket duo Coles (ASX: COL) and Woolworths (ASX: WOW). Following the collapse of freight company Scott Refrigerated Logistics, its receivers indicated that there are no guarantees it can continue to meet supply commitments with the major supermarkets.
Scott delivers refrigerated products to the aforementioned pair, as well as Aldi and IGA. In the meantime, supermarkets are enacting contingency plans to shift supply points to alternative transport partners, but it remains to be seen what disruption there might be across the supply chain, for customers, and overall sales.
Turning to the local property market, some positive signs emerged over the weekend as the preliminary auction clearance rate crept above 70%. That was a full 60 basis points higher than the preceding week.
The national property market was led by strength out of Sydney and Melbourne, where the latter recorded its highest clearance rate since April. These figures suggest greater buying enthusiasm in the market, and may provide encouragement for property portals like Domain Holdings Australia (ASX: DHG) and REA Group (ASX: REA), albeit low supply was a factor boosting the clearance rate.
Meanwhile, China has set itself the goal of 5% economic growth in the year ahead, including stable expansion in the property sector to minimise risks to the financial system. With concerted efforts being made to help foster high-quality balance sheets for leading developers, it is clear that Beijing sees property playing a key role in driving the economy.
Iron ore miners like Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG), BHP (ASX: BHP), and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) will be hopeful China goals translate into greater demand for steel, and in turn iron ore, with the Chinese housing market showing some green shoots, and government support proposed. Tech giant Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is one name that could be discussed quite widely this week. On Friday the consumer electronics manufacturer, which is also the world most valuable company by market cap, will host its annual shareholders meeting. Investors will not only be voting on the company Board and remuneration, but will also be listening for any clues on what the uncertain economic outlook may mean for the company near-term sales and earnings.
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