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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Will the RBA hold fire on rates?

Rene Anthony

Saturday, April 1, 2023

Saturday, April 1, 2023

The RBA has hiked interest rates each of its last 10 meetings. Is that about to change?

The RBA has hiked interest rates each of its last 10 meetings. Is that about to change?

Key takeaways:

  • Economists are split on whether the RBA will hike rates for an 11th straight occasion 

Friday Wall Street surge is set to add fuel to last week ASX rally, although investors will be focused on one thing - tomorrow RBA Board meeting.

Economic Calendar and News

As we enter the new week, the nation central bank is sure to be the biggest talking point. Already a topical subject, and with the shadow of politics hanging over the independent bank every move, economists have expressed mixed views on what to expect at tomorrow RBA Board meeting.

A slight majority of experts believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold fire on rates and keep the official cash rate steady at 3.60%. However, another camp of observers believe the RBA will lift rates for an 11th straight instance.

The disparity between the two camps arises from a package of economic data that provides conflicting views on the state of the economy.

While the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England all overlooked the global banking blow-up to forge ahead with rate hikes in an effort to tame inflation, traders believe the RBA will take a more cautious approach.

Nonetheless, recent data points including inflation and retail spending both lend weight to a more dovish' decision by the RBA on account of slowing conditions, but strong figures detailing the jobs market and business conditions indicate the economy could sustain another rate hike.

Also on the local economic agenda this week is new data on lending activity, commodity prices, building permits, and the Balance of Trade.Overseas, investors can expect US employment data to dominate the narrative. Economists are eyeing gains of another 250,000 jobs in the upcoming reading, and a steady unemployment rate of 3.6%. Those sorts of numbers would provide the Federal Reserve with a clearer mandate to continue hiking interest rates, despite the pain felt by households across the world largest economy.

Stocks on watch

With the RBA rate decision a major talking point this week, look out for the flow-on impact for a range of industries and sectors.

Perhaps the most obvious, the nation major banks will be directly impacted by any move in the official cash rate. In months gone by, the Big Four, made up of Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), Westpac (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB), and ANZ (ASX: ANZ) moved quickly to pass on rate hikes. However, observers are mulling whether net interest margins have already peaked for the major banks, in which case rate hikes may only be heightening the risk of a surge in bad debts among home loan borrowers. Elsewhere, ASX-listed real estate trusts will be hoping for a rate pause. Property prices, even in the commercial and office sectors, are susceptible to rate hikes, and it no surprise that REITs like Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR), and DEXUS Property Group (ASX: DXS), among others, have been one of the weakest segments of the market since rates began increasing nearly a year ago. On a similar note, property platforms like REA Group (ASX: REA) and Domain Holdings Australia (ASX: DHG) are the intermediaries for buyers and sellers in a market that has started to show green shoots. Should the RBA hold rates, that may provide a boost for property market sentiment, but another hike could risk momentum at what is seasonally a favourable time of year at the moment.OPEC+ has announced a surprise production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day. That goes against previous assurances the cartel made that indicated it would maintain supply. The move could put upward pressure on global inflation, which follows a period where crude oil was trading at a 15-month low just a few weeks back. Some energy names to watch include Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), Beach Energy (ASX: BPT), and Santos (ASX: STO).In what is a serious development for one of Australia most well known shipbuilders, Austal (ASX: ASB) faces uncertain times after former executives at the company US division were charged by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The US federal government agency alleges that shareholders were misled by members of the shipbuilder US executive team, accusing Austal USA former president, now departed director of financial analysis, and former director of the Littoral Combat Ships program of running an accounting fraud scheme between 2013 and 2016. Among its claims, the SEC has focused on the disclosure of revenue recognised prematurely and artificially' reduced cost estimates.

If the charges are proven, the SEC has specified that any profits that arose from the fraud be rescinded, as well as penalties. This setback comes at a time where the business has a role in the development of the nuclear-powered Virginia class submarines at the centre of the AUKUS agreement. It could also prevent the company from bidding on future US government contracts.

With another strong surge on Friday, EV auto-maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) rounded out the first quarter with a gain of nearly 70%. Despite many of the negative headlines at the start of the year, it was the stock best first-quarter performance on record, and its sixth best across any quarter, albeit the result was off a low base. 

Tesla first-quarter deliveries report, released in the US on Sunday, showed the company delivered 422,875 vehicles, versus Wall Street expectations for approximately 420,000 units. That was also a record for the company, going some way to dispel fears about a slowdown in demand for the most well known EV on the market.

The semiconductor space could be set for a shake-up of sorts, as China fired off a salvo at one of the United States' rising stars in this sector. At the orders of the government, China will conduct a cybersecurity review of imports from Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), the largest memory-chip maker in the US. 

Tension between the two countries has been escalating after the US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon, and following export controls imposed by the US last year. Just last week Micron forecast a promising outlook for the quarter thanks to strong demand for its chips, but investors will be watching what China has in store for the chip manufacturer.

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