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Investment Solutions

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Markets Week Ahead: What will US bank earnings tell us?

Rene Anthony

Saturday, October 8, 2022

Saturday, October 8, 2022

The latest round of earnings season kicks off with the banks set to unveil what impact inflation and higher rates have had.

The latest round of earnings season kicks off with the banks set to unveil what impact inflation and higher rates have had.

Last week stock market gains look set to be tested this morning after US shares were hit by a wave of selling pressure on Friday evening, just as US earnings season kicks off.

Economic Calendar and News

It will be a quiet week on the domestic front, with consumer and business confidence the only data-points, but the US economic calendar is awash with activity.Following last week strong jobs report, where payrolls increased by over 260,000, and the unemployment rate touched a 50-year low, investors increasingly believe the Fed has the remit to continue its aggressive rate hike campaign. US 10-Year Treasury Yields surged to 3.89%, ensuring further volatility in the market.Meanwhile, oil prices rallied by more than 15% over the week after OPEC+ announced it would cut oil production by up to two million barrels per day, a larger than expected move that is likely to prove a talking point at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings this week.However, the key piece of data over the coming days will be reports on consumer and producer prices, which measure inflation in the US economy. Forecasts suggest the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will show prices rose 0.2% throughout September, an increase versus gains of 0.1% the month prior. 

On an annual basis, headline CPI is tipped to ease from 8.3% in August to 8.1% in September, but that could hide an increase in prices for core' goods, where prices are projected to have accelerated from growth of 6.3% in August, to 6.5% last month.

It a similar story for the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is forecast to show a monthly increase in producer prices of 0.2%, versus declines over the previous two months, and month-over-month growth of 0.3% for core prices.Elsewhere, look out for the latest retail sales and consumer confidence readings, as well as the minutes from the Federal Reserve most recent policy meeting held in late September. These figures will indicate whether spending has remained buoyant despite a series of rate hikes.There may also be some extra publicity surrounding crypto this week, with the G20 Financial Stability Board expected to target regulation at the crypto and DeFi industries.

Markets Week Ahead: What will US bank earnings tell us?

Stocks on watch

US earnings season is upon us once again, with the major banks set to open proceedings over the coming days. JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Citi (NYSE: C), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) are just some of the financial institutions scheduled to report. The sector is typically considered a barometer of sorts for the economy, let alone at a time when interest rates have been rising and the global macroeconomic outlook remains clouded.Investors will be looking for commentary on how higher rates are translating to the bottom line, the risks of a recession, and how that might impact bad debt levels and any impairment charges held on the banks balance sheets. Lending and corporate activity may also start to show signs of slowing down. These factors will likely have an influence on ASX-listed banks, which are currently in the midst of a margin squeeze, with Westpac (ASX: WBC), ANZ (ASX: ANZ), and NAB (ASX: NAB) all set to hand down earnings from the end of this month.Corporate earnings will also come from a number of other high profile bellwether stocks, including UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE: TSM).Meanwhile, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be hoping to bounce back after the company share price recorded its worst week since March, 2020. The electric vehicle manufacturer recently reported it delivered 343,000 cars during the third quarter of 2022, and produced 365,000 vehicles.These figures fell short of analysts expectations given operations are now flowing at its newest plants in Germany and the US. The company has been hit by production issues in China, staff layoffs in the US, and shares also came under pressure when Elon Musk latest about-face came as he revealed he would proceed with his proposed acquisition of Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) after all.For the third week running, energy stocks are also likely to remain in focus after crude oil futures spiked more than 5% during Friday offshore trading session to reclaim US$93 per barrel. Across the week, oil gained almost US$10 per barrel following dramatic production cuts by OPEC+ that favour names like Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), among others.The local corporate calendar also has action in store for ASX investors, with blue-chip names like Telstra (ASX: TLS), Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), CSL (ASX: CSL), and Aurizon (ASX: AZJ) all hosting their annual general meetings this week. At the same time, Bank of Queensland (ASX: BOQ) will hand down its FY22 earnings on Wednesday, providing the earliest commentary from a local bank about the state of the lending market down under.

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