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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: What might tech earnings say about the economic outlook?

Rene Anthony

Saturday, January 28, 2023

Saturday, January 28, 2023

After a strong start to the year for equities, rate hikes and earnings prove the toughest challenge yet

After a strong start to the year for equities, rate hikes and earnings prove the toughest challenge yet

Key takeaways:

  • Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Meta headline a busy week of earnings

  • The US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank are all tipped to lift interest rates this week

Monetary policy and earnings headline a key period for equities following four consecutive weekly gains for the Nasdaq, and a blistering start to the year for the ASX.

Economic Calendar and News

By far this week biggest talking point, the Federal Open Market Committee will convene this week to set the scene for monetary policy.

The world most watched central bank is expected to raise the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points following its meeting, which wraps up on Thursday morning Australian time. 

That would represent a downshift in the pace of its interest rate hikes, with consumer spending starting to show signs of easing, and inflation also heading in the right direction after a protracted battle for policy makers. Nonetheless, if that forecast plays out as expected, the range of the federal funds rate will be set at 4.5% to 4.75%.

With markets all but fully pricing in a quarter of a percent interest rate hike, the focus will likely shift to the post-meeting press conference led by Chair Jerome Powell. He is expected to be questioned about the Fed outlook on rates, and what might pre-empt a pause from the central bank.

Staying overseas, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are both scheduled to meet in the week ahead. On paper, consensus views suggest a half-percent increase in rates is the likely outcome for both regions, with inflation tipped to cool in the most recent data.The Australian economic calendar is a little more subdued, with retail sales proving a highlight. The view on the street is that retail sales fell 1% in December, month-over-month, albeit that comes off a high base given the popular online shopping sales held in late November.Elsewhere, look out for fresh data on building permits, home loan lending, and private sector credit.

Stocks on watch

The week ahead entails another deluge of earnings reports in the US, including six companies from the Dow Jones, and more than 100 S&P 500 companies. 

Thursday is the major focal point in the US for the week action, with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) both set to report earnings after the close of trade. 

In the case of Alphabet, the company is likely to emphasise the difficulties of the current macro environment. Management recently slashed the company global workforce by 6%, suggesting tough times ahead. 

That may draw scrutiny to Alphabet outlook for earnings growth, with consensus estimates suggesting earnings may contract for the third quarter in a row. Some of the areas that may signal potentially positive upside include advertising pricing and YouTube sales amid new exclusive rights to live sports.

Meanwhile, Apple key constraint is all but certain to be supply chain issues in the wake of China pivot from COVID-zero. At the same time, it is also contending with a strong greenback, with the US dollar proving a headwind for the firm given its significant overseas exposure. Look out for key figures covering iPhone and services revenue growth.

Tech giant Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is also scheduled to step into the spotlight, a day earlier than its big-name peers. The company recently sought to alleviate cost pressures by slashing jobs and cutting down office space, but its capex investment plans will remain a key pillar to watch amid signs of a cooling economy. Key areas to watch in the company results include gross margins, and the size of losses in the company Reality Labs division.In the energy space, results from Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) will provide an insight into how momentum is shifting through the sector. While the company net earnings probably jumped more than 50% compared with the prior corresponding period, last year ended with oil and gas prices starting to slide from highs reached in the immediate aftermath of the start of the war in Ukraine, and a warmer than expected start to winter in Europe.Other high-profile earnings reports coming up this week include Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ: NXPI), Spotify (NYSE: SPOT), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN).Locally, weekend developments could bring attention to education stocks. An official announcement on Saturday by the Chinese Service Centre for Scholarly Exchange confirmed online diplomas and degrees would no longer be recognised, which could shift the focus to stocks like Idp Education (ASX: IEL). The news is expected to lead to a surge in local university enrolments among Chinese students, with the sudden nature of the news catching many officials off guard.Another name that could be on watch over the coming days, albeit for unwelcome reasons, is Austal (ASX: ASB). Late last week, the ship builder drew scrutiny from a member of the US Congress, with Republican Neal Dunn indicating his opposition to the company role in building part of the nuclear-powered submarines at the heart of the AUKUS deal. Those reservations stem from his concerns about the handling of classified information with third parties like the Chinese government. In an interview with the AFR, Mr Dunn also went on to indicate the possibility he may leverage his role on the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the US and China to open a new investigation into Austal.

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