Markets Week Ahead: What does the election mean for commodity stocks? Will Costco see inflation bite?
Rene Anthony
US futures have opened higher this morning, extending the rebound off last week lows, where the S&P 500 at one stage entered bear market territory. Nonetheless, the Dow Jones notched up its worst losing streak in 99 years after posting its eighth consecutive weekly decline. The ASX is expected to digest the weekend election results, with the commodities sector one that might be a focal point.
Economic calendar and news
The change in federal government and composition of parliament will remain the key talking point this week in what is otherwise a quiet period for local economic data. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will attend the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, meeting leaders from the United States, Japan and India, after which he is expected to announce his cabinet.In the US, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is back in the spotlight once again, scheduled to speak at the National Center for American Indian Enterprise Development' summit.That is before the minutes from the US central bank most-recent Board meeting are released on Wednesday US-time, something which could provide further clues on whether the bank sees its current tightening regime as sufficient to tackle stubbornly-high inflation.There will also be readings on durable goods orders, a second estimate of GDP growth for the March quarter, plus all-important personal consumption expenditure data. The PCE data will shed detailed insights on spending, income and inflation, with a number of large retailers already ringing alarm bells about what they are seeing among US consumers.
Stocks on watch
Following the change in federal government, and particularly strong support for independents and Greens candidates, fossil fuel stocks could find themselves in the spotlight amid a clear mandate backing a stronger move towards renewables and decarbonisation.
The oil and gas industry might find itself most vulnerable, but mining names are also facing a new assortment of challenges to navigate. That includes a tightening of the safeguard mechanism', and the government legislating a formal emissions target. With that said, the (likely) emergence of a majority ALP government may remove some uncertainty that otherwise would be tied to a hung parliament and the possibility of negotiations focusing on stricter regulations.
There was also a late policy announcement on Friday just hours before the election regarding the ALP plans to establish an independent environmental conservation regulator, which raises the prospect of more stringent requirements for resource projects to get off the ground, and stricter enforcement of related laws. A number of companies are among those where investors will be weighing up the election result, including BHP (ASX: BHP), Woodside Petroleum (ASX: WPL), Santos (ASX: STO), Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) and one of the biggest talking points of late, AGL Energy (ASX: AGL).In the case of AGL, the energy retailer, which is also the nation biggest polluter, is in the middle of a stoush with Mike Cannon-Brookes concerning plans to demerge its assets into two businesses. Although Cannon-Brookes has since softened his timeline for closure of AGL coal assets at Bayswater and Loy Yang A, the resounding election result could pile more pressure on AGL to prove the business case for its demerger of coal assets into a separate business with a longer operating life.
More broadly, however, there has been some support for the resources sector thanks to China decision on Friday to cut the five-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 15 basis points to 4.45%. This is a key rate that underpins much of China real estate market, and in turn property development and demand for resources. Last week move was the biggest rate cut in three years, and it provided a tailwind for commodity prices.
US consumer stocks are likely to serve as a barometer once again, which follows high-profile earnings misses last week from the likes of Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT). The duo shed 19.5% and 29.3% respectively, with Walmart near a two-year low. Both reported major concerns about the impact inflation is having on the US economy, including subdued earnings and a weak outlook. This time around all eyes will be on Costco (NASDAQ: COST), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) and Macy (NYSE: M).Elsewhere, Hong Kong duo Alibaba (HKG: 9988) and Baidu (HKG: 9888) report, as does US semiconductor giant Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA).
Although chip stocks had a bumper 2021, the sector has been at the mercy of the tech sell-off. And with growing concerns about a global recession, plus China lockdowns potentially stifling both demand for consumer electronic goods and manufacturing other electronics, the semiconductor industry has faced growth questions. Nvidia results and outlook commentary should provide further clues on whether this might be just a blip, or a return to more normalised' levels.
Last but not least, keep your eyes peeled for a number of IPOs on the ASX this week:
The Lottery Corporation (ASX: TLC) - Tuesday, 24 May
Bellavista Resources (ASX: BVR) - Wednesday, 25 May
Nordic Nickel (ASX: NNL) - Wednesday, 25 May
TG Metals (ASX: TG6) - Thursday, 26 May
Oceana Lithium (ASX: OCN) - Friday, 27 May
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