Markets Week Ahead: Tech pivotal moment, property stocks dealt a clearance slump, oil sinks
Rene Anthony
With the S&P 500 posting its 10th weekly loss out of the last 11 weeks, and cryptocurrency markets moving wildly over the weekend, the ASX enters the new trading week facing a wall of negative sentiment. Last week saw all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 enter at least a correction, with the broader index now firmly in bear market territory.
Economic Calendar and News
After the Federal Reserve last week moved to lift interest rates 75 basis points, its largest hike since 1994, the central bank Chair, Jerome Powell, will testify before both houses of US congress this week. It is expected Mr Powell will maintain his commitment to do whatever it takes to rein in soaring inflation, including an aggressive rate hike cycle.He may be prompted for his views on the economy, which is starting to show signs of plateauing. For example, housing starts and mortgage applications have now dropped off dramatically. Jobless claims have begun to increase. And consumer sentiment is sitting at worse levels than during the pandemic.
On the last point, the economic calendar this week includes the latest consumer sentiment reading, and it may well point to even more angst about runaway inflation and rising interest rates that have so far done little to control prices of consumer goods.
Also in the spotlight this week will be RBA Governor Philip Lowe, who is scheduled to speak at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia on Tuesday about the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. Almost simultaneously, the RBA will release the minutes from its recent Board meeting, when the central bank stunned onlookers with a supersized rate hike.More inflation data will trickle out of the UK, and the early forecasts look grim, with economists expecting the reading to show a four-decade high of 9% growth in consumer prices. And lastly, as China tip-toes out of its lockdowns, the nation banks will establish the loan prime rate today, an important threshold for lending activity across the world second-largest economy.
Stocks on watch
Minor gains for US tech stocks on Friday could provide a glimmer of optimism for the sector, however, with concerns about rate hikes, and a recession occupying investors' minds at this time, the relief could be short-lived.
Last week saw yearly lows for the likes of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Meta (NASDAQ: FB), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), with the tech crash that originally spanned unprofitable companies now being compounded by weak performances in these mega-tech names. That is at odds with past downturns across the US market, where mega-tech stocks have shielded indices from the full effects of a downturn in sentiment. One-time market darling Afterpay is now a shadow of its former self, with shares in its parent company, Block (ASX: SQ2), hitting a fresh low on the ASX. The stock enters the new week trading at $81 per share, with weak sentiment in the BNPL segment hammering all of these companies given their exposure to higher interest rates, and a greater risk of bad debts.Meanwhile, other ASX stocks like Xero (ASX: XRO) and Life360 (ASX: 360) are trading at their lowest prices since the pandemic began, with the bubble bursting on companies trading at lofty valuations.Oil prices were crunched on Friday, falling over 6% to sit at roughly US$110 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude. Although this is a net positive for keeping inflation in check, it is a setback for key names across the energy sector, including Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), Beach Energy (ASX: BPT), Santos (ASX: STO), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), Exxon (NYSE: XOM), and more.With local auction clearance rates falling sharply over the weekend, there may be further pressure ahead for ASX-listed housing stocks. REA Group (ASX: REA) and Domain Holdings (ASX: DHG) are among the stocks that have fallen from grace as investors fret about the rate hike cycle, and with the national clearance rate recording its lowest preliminary figure since August at 57.8%, the pain may be far from over.Global courier delivery service FedEx (NYSE: FDX) will report its fourth-quarter fiscal earnings for 2022 after the market closes on Thursday, US time. One of the few stocks to end in green territory last week, the business announced it will lift its dividend more than 50%, while also undertaking a Board restructure and cost-cutting program to slash expenses as it feels the effects of inflation.Volatility is all but assured to dominate trading in shares of Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), the largest crypto exchange in the US. Bitcoin slumped below US$18,000 over the weekend, its lowest price in more than 18 months, before ultimately reclaiming US$20,000 by Monday morning. Just last week the business announced it will slash nearly one-fifth of its head count in response to the change in macro environment.
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