Last week saw commodities post their fastest weekly surge in pricing since 1974, with energy, metals and agricultural materials also skyrocketing in response to the war in Ukraine. Attention isn't likely to waver from these areas over the coming days, with investors assessing what it means for a broad range of sectors.

Economic calendar and news

It will be hard to ignore inflation data out of the US this week, with forecasts suggesting consumer prices rose 7.9% in February, which would represent an acceleration in terms of inflation. The key driver to this result will be energy prices, which have soared in the lead-up to the conflict in Europe, and much further since. Elsewhere, data on job openings is expected to be a low-profile event, but consumer sentiment could draw some attention given a sharp sell-off in discretionary names late last week.Also overseas, the European Central Bank will unveil its initial monetary policy response to the crisis in Ukraine. While the ECB has been keen to withdraw emergency stimulus given the economic recovery to date, the fallout of the war, and risks associated with inflation, may prompt some rethinking. This comes as the International Monetary Fund predicts a severe impact for the global economy following Russia invasion of Ukraine.Philip Lowe from the Reserve Bank of Australia will also speak twice this week. While not expected to deviate from a patient outlook on the need to wait for wage growth before raising interest rates, he may speak to the economic consequences and uncertainty amid the Ukraine war.And lastly, China National People Congress commenced over the weekend, with the key political event setting the backdrop for policy and leadership changes. One item to come out of the meeting is China decision to set the lowest economic growth target in 30 years at 5.5%. The country will also release trade and inflation data.

Stocks on watch

The consortium between Mike Cannon-Brookes and Brookfield lobbed a second takeover bid at AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) over the weekend, increasing its offer to $8.25 per share. After failing to offer a premium that met the company expectations, and commensurate with what is standard practice in terms of takeover bids - often upwards of 30-50% from when a bid is first launched, rather than based on 90 days ago as Cannon-Brookes referenced online - the Board wasted no time in unanimously rejecting the offer.

AGL board has in recent weeks cited a firm belief that the consortium offer does not represent a fair valuation for the company, and that the company proposed demerger plans for its coal-fired power assets and retail and renewables division would be in shareholders' best interests. This remains to be seen, with a number of doubts in play, but also weighing on the situation is a debate around the security of energy supply, and potential intervention by either the ACCC - in response to Brookfield ownership of AusNet - or the government with regards to a bid from the current suitors.

Zip (ASX: Z1P) is another stock that will be in focus over the coming days, after plummeting to a new multi-month low last week. The company capital raise and decision to acquire its peer, Sezzle (ASX: SZL), has fallen flat with investors, who have seemingly abandoned the company growth plans in recent months. Once right up there as the most-popular ASX stock in the Selfwealth community, the sharp plunge in value for Z1P shares means it is no longer in the top 20 most-held ASX stocks. Whether the stock might rebound from here remains to be seen, but volatility will be the likely fallout in the near-term as onlookers wrestle over bad debts, expansion plans, and growth prospects.For the third week running, energy stocks are unlikely to recede from the spotlight, with the war in Ukraine pushing crude oil prices above US$130 a barrel on Monday morning, and the likes of gas and coal also hitting record highs. Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) was one name that soared in value last week, as did the likes of Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) and Woodside Petroleum (ASX: WPL). That comes as the US and Europe weigh an embargo on Russian oil exports.

With that said, some traders this week will be looking at Iran progress in terms of commitments to a nuclear deal, as the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran announced over the weekend a key milestone in restoring compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. This could pave the wave for Iran to increase oil exports, potentially by the end of the third-quarter of this year.

Travel stocks may face greater scrutiny amid events unfolding both home and abroad. Between the war in Ukraine, flooding that has plagued many parts of Queensland and New South Wales, as well as headwinds in terms of higher oil prices, there are a number of headwinds for airlines, and even travel agents in convincing travellers to return to the skies. 

In the US on Friday, large share price declines in United AIrlines (NASDAQ: UAL), down 9.1%, American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), down over 7%, and Boeing (NYSE: BA) reflected this mood, so attention will shift to ASX peers like Qantas (ASX: QAN) and Air New Zealand (ASX: AIZ). And finally, gold rallied nearly 2% on Friday evening to breach US$1,970 an ounce, its highest level since July, 2020. This will provide momentum for some of the world largest gold producers, including Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), not to mention second-tier producers as well.