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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: RBA poised for fifth supersized rate hike

Rene Anthony

Saturday, October 1, 2022

Saturday, October 1, 2022

The RBA is expected to once again lift interest rates sharply higher, at a time where more warning bells are ringing for the global economy.

The RBA is expected to once again lift interest rates sharply higher, at a time where more warning bells are ringing for the global economy.

US markets ended on a low on Friday evening, with market sentiment all but on the slide ahead of tomorrow latest RBA meeting, where investors can expect another rate hike.

Wall Street has posted three straight quarterly declines, which is the longest losing streak for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in 14 years.

Economic Calendar and News

With US inflation data coming in ahead of expectations again last week, and Eurozone consumer prices also hitting a record high of 10% last month, the notion that we have already seen peak inflation appears to have been dispelled. That has seen bond yields climb sharply of late, with US 10-Year Treasury yields inching within a whisker of 4% last week, a level not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. Markets will be looking to see whether yields remain under this key barrier, or break higher in tandem with a strengthening US dollar.Perhaps the most influential factor for the bond and currency market this week could be US employment data, where a modest increase of about 250,000 new jobs are forecast for September. 

Although the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady, there was a surprise increase last month, so if that trend follows once again, alongside a below-forecast jobs figure, concerns about the economy could begin to amplify.

Various officials from the Federal Reserve will speak this week, so we may gain further clues on the outlook for interest rates.On home soil, all the focus will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is widely tipped to deliver a fifth straight rate hike of 50 basis points tomorrow.

Of the Big Four', Westpac, NAB, and ANZ are all tipping another supersized rate hike, whereas Commonwealth Bank is forecasting a 25 basis point increase.

If a 0.5 percentage point increase follows, that would lift the official cash rate to 2.85%, with bond markets currently predicting the benchmark rate will hit 3.3% by the end of 2022, and a peak rate of 4.1% by the middle of next year. 

That may provide some respite for a tumbling Australian dollar, which recently dipped below 64 US cents as investors flock to the greenback as a safe haven' investment amid concerns about the global economy.

There is also new data on building permits, home loans, investment lending, job advertisements, exports and imports from August, as well as services and manufacturing activity from last month. CoreLogic will provide its monthly home value index for the property market this morning, while observers can also expect an update on the RBA Financial Stability Review, which provides the Bank's assessment of the current condition of the financial system and potential risks to financial stability.In the broader region, the New Zealand central bank is also ready to push through another 50 basis point rate hike, which would take the country interest rate benchmark to 3.5%.

Stocks on watch

With US markets in a tailspin, and coming off their worst monthly result since the market crash at the start of the pandemic, all the major names will be on watch over the coming days for any signs of things plateauing, let alone a rebound taking place.

Shares in Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit a three-month low last week after the consumer electronics giant effectively slashed its forecast production output on slower-than-expected demand for its flagship iPhone 14. The company is understood to have asked suppliers to cut production by around six million units in the second half of this year, winding back its output to levels comparable with last year, albeit the product mix is favouring its higher-end models as opposed to its base model.

Nonetheless, the news has also had a flow-on impact across other key players within the industry supply chain, with the likes of chipmakers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE: TSM) and ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ: ASML) sold off sharply. The pain is also being felt in other areas of the tech sector, with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares under pressure, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) at a 20-month low, and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) also trading at its lowest price in approximately 18 months.  

Energy stocks may continue to attract attention over the coming days, despite oil prices being well off their recent highs. That because the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will meet face-to-face this week for the first time since the pandemic began, with the group weighing up the option of cutting oil production to offset a recent pull-back in prices. 

If the cartel were to cut output north of a million barrels a day, that could bring the spotlight back onto oil majors such as Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), as well as other notable players leveraged to energy prices such as Beach Energy (ASX: BPT) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), with Warren Buffett recently increasing his stake in the latter.With another RBA rate hike all but locked in, the nation leading banks will also have a role to play in deciding which way the market heads over the coming days. This week fresh data on lending and building permits could also provide a backdrop for investors to weigh up whether the likes of Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), Westpac (ASX: WBC), and co will see a net benefit as interest rates rise, but the property market cools.

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