Economic Calendar and News

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.35% in its final policy meeting of the year, especially after last week’s inflation data showed a surprising downturn.

As per a Reuters poll, the rate is expected to remain unchanged until the fourth quarter of next year, with a strong housing market cited as a key factor. While the majority of economists, including those from Australia’s big four banks, foresee no change in the official cash rate, two have predicted a 25 basis point hike. Reuters’ poll indicates a split between economists on rate movements until end-March, with most suggesting a steady rate and others expecting a quarter percentage point increase. The median forecast projects the rates to remain unchanged until the end of September 2024, followed by a 25 basis point cut in the last quarter.

Attention will also turn to Australia’s economic strength with the release of GDP figures on Wednesday, where growth of 0.4% for the quarter and an annual rate of 1.8% is forecasted.

Other key Australian economic data due this week includes quarterly company operating profits, national trade balance, and services and manufacturing activity.

In the US, the job market takes center stage with non-farm payrolls and the official unemployment rate due on Friday. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 3.9%, bolstered by the addition of an estimated 160,000 new jobs in November.

Stocks on Watch

Gold mining stocks like Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), and Perseus Mining (ASX: PRU) are in a favorable position as gold prices surge to new highs, exceeding US$2,070 per ounce.

Shareholders rejected a $20 billion bid to take over Origin Energy (ASX:ORG), effectively terminating a year-long negotiation process. The offer, put forth by Brookfield, a Canadian private equity fund, and EIG, a US investment firm, aimed to privatise and split the company. The deal faced strong opposition from AustralianSuper, Origin’s largest shareholder with over 17% stake, who saw the offer as undervalued and aimed at quick profits. AustralianSuper emphasized the strategic value of Origin’s assets in the energy transition and expressed a desire to retain ownership for the benefit of members and other shareholders. The Sydney Morning Herald reported that shareholders rejected the “best and final” offer of $9.39 per share. Despite the rejection, Origin’s chairman Scott Perkins highlighted the confidence shareholders have in the company’s strategic positioning for the energy transition and their commitment to cleaner energy and storage.

Bank of Queensland (ASX: BOQ) is preparing for its annual general meeting on Tuesday, where shareholders are eager for updates on the bank’s “simplification” program.

Metcash (ASX: MTS) will kick off the trading week with its HY24 results on Monday, a significant update from the leading wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia.

Pharmaceutical leader Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) starts the week with shares at a low not seen in over three and a half years, following their announcement not to pursue further trials of its twice-daily GLP-1 receptor agonist oral treatment, danuglipron, for weight loss, despite it inducing 7% to 11% weight loss in obese adults without Type 2 diabetes. This decision follows high discontinuation rates in clinical trials, where more than half of the participants stopped the treatment due to severe gastrointestinal side effects. Pfizer will continue researching a once-daily formulation of the drug.