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Investment Solutions

Features

Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Investors to monitor largest bank failure since 2008

Rene Anthony

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Saturday, March 11, 2023

A new risk has swept across the market, forcing investors to assess the state of the banking sector.

A new risk has swept across the market, forcing investors to assess the state of the banking sector.

Key takeaways:

  • Investors will be assessing the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

  • Fresh economic data due this week will likely determine the next steps of the Federal Reserve and RBA

US shares were rocked late last week by concerns about a potential run on regional banks, with the issue set to linger over the coming days.

Economic Calendar and News

One of the key talking points this week will be the Federal Reserve ongoing battle to quash inflation. Just over a week out from the next monetary policy meeting, look out for fresh inflation data covering consumer price growth during February.

According to consensus figures, US headline inflation may have increased 0.4% month-over-month, or on an annual basis, prices grew at 6%. In terms of core inflation, which strips out volatile components like energy and food, prices likely grew at an annual rate of 5.5%, which would be a marginal decrease compared with the 5.6% growth seen in January.

The data is set to be a pivotal factor in the US central bank next interest rate decision, at a time where traders have suddenly dialled back their predictions for a 50 basis point hike in the wake of contagion fears flowing through the US banking sector.On Wednesday, US-time, the US Census Bureau will publish retail sales figures, which will shed light on how consumer spending fared in February. Sales likely rose by 0.2% last month, which would signal deceleration compared with a 3% rise in January.Other economic data out of the world largest economy this week includes the Producer Price Index, housing starts, building permits, industrial production, as well as consumer sentiment.On home soil, the latest report on the jobs market takes centre stage. Economists anticipate that around 50,000 jobs were added to the Australian economy last month, which would translate into a modest improvement in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. That follows a surprise drop in January, albeit one that was dubbed a statistical anomaly by veteran observers.

Should the jobs report come in better than expected, it may give the Reserve Bank of Australia some comfort to continue hiking interest rates, despite the impact on households around the country.

Stocks on watch

Emerging as a big story at the end of last week, there may still be reverberations for bank stocks over the coming days after SVB Financial Group (NASDAQ: SIVB), the holding company for Silicon Valley Bank, collapsed. 

After booking a US$1.8 billion loss on an asset sale to fund client withdrawals, the bank, a major financier for the global tech start-up community, failed in its efforts to raise capital last week. It was then shut down by regulators after being unable to find a buyer and depositors began to withdraw their money in haste. These developments have unnerved bank and tech investors amid fears of contagion across regional US banks.

One of the pressing concerns arising from the collapse is the risk that depositors begin to transfer funds from other regional banks with large bond portfolios to majors like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). This phenomenon, known as a bank run, exposes institutions to capital flight, effectively compromising their ability to act as a lender. Some of the stocks that felt the heat on Friday included First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC), Signature Bank (NYSE: SBNY), and PacWest Bancorp (NASDAQ: PACW), where deposit outflows were reportedly the largest.Last week saw the S&P Regional Bank ETF (NYSE: IAT) slump 16%, which was its worst weekly result since the initial market crash when COVID caused chaos in March, 2020. Despite the circumstances of SVB demise being overwhelmingly specific to its circumstances, contagion fears also spread to ASX-listed banks like Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) and Westpac (ASX: WBC), with Treasurer Jim Chalmers indicating some local tech firms are impacted by SVB collapse.Elsewhere, the price of gold reversed its losses during Friday offshore trading session, with the precious metal climbing roughly 2% to reach a four-week high. Interest in gold spiked in response to concerns emanating from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. For the ASX, that could translate into greater attention across names like Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), and Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR), among others.There is positive news for ASX-listed biotech Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU), with the stock, a favourite in the Selfwealth community, receiving a favourable ruling. The US Food and Drug Administration approved the company treatment for Rett syndrome, a severe neurological disorder that is estimated to affect upwards of 350,000 girls and women across the world. 

In doing so, history has been made, with Trofinetide becoming the first-ever FDA-approved drug for the condition. It is also considered the first neurological treatment discovered in New Zealand to reach the market, and in the process, opens a pathway for the company to commercialise sales with its partner Acadia Pharmaceuticals.

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