Markets Week Ahead: Has Tesla lost its mojo?
Rene Anthony
Key takeaways:
Central bank policy dominates the market narrative this week
Electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla is trading at a two-year low
The local share market is set to consolidate its recent gains at the start of the new trading week, with investors betting on a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.
Economic Calendar and News
This week economic calendar has plenty in store, despite a shortened trading week in the US due to Thanksgiving.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its most recent meeting. It hiked interest rates by 75 basis points at the start of November, taking the benchmark overnight rate to 4%.
With expectations rates could reach a peak of 5%, all eyes will be on the bank commentary given inflation is showing signs of cooling.
Several figureheads from the US central bank will also deliver key speeches over the coming days. Recently, Fed officials have split in their views, with some calling to maintain the current rate path, and others open to softening the blow.
Meanwhile, bond yields suggest there could be trouble ahead. The US bond yield curve inverted further late last week. That means short-term bond yields are now higher than those for long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is typically viewed as a warning sign for a looming recession. Currently, two-year yields are 4.53%, while ten-year bond yields are 3.82%. This is the largest discrepancy since the year 2000. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will speak on Tuesday about price stability, the supply side, and prosperity. With last week wages data showing robust growth, Dr Lowe could stick with the message that more rate hikes are required to achieve price stability.New Zealand central bank will also meet this week. Pundits believe the RBNZ could accelerate its rate hike program and deliver a 75 basis point increase on Wednesday. The country central bank is not scheduled to meet again for another three months, and inflation has yet to moderate.Back overseas, European Central Bank officials will speak this week. The region has arguably felt the worst of soaring inflation, so expect more commitments to tackle prices. Finally, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will deliver its Economic Outlook' report. A key theme of the report could focus on the risk of a slowdown in global economic growth.
Stocks on watch
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be watched closely this week, with the stock trading at a two-year low. A number of factors are weighing on its shares, most of which relate to CEO Elon Musk. The entrepreneur has attracted controversy lately regarding his management of Twitter. Some analysts are concerned his time with Twitter could become a distraction, or even a major financial strain.
However, there is more at play. During last week trial regarding the pay package awarded to Musk in 2018, details emerged suggesting he has identified a successor for the role of CEO at Tesla. One of the company's directors, James Murdoch, testified in court that Musk has chosen an individual, albeit details have been withheld, and no timeline has been announced. That followed testimony from Musk himself, who told the court, I frankly don't want to be the CEO of any company.
Furthermore, public documents show Musk has sold more shares in Tesla to fund his Twitter acquisition. He has now sold approximately US$19 billion worth of shares in TSLA'. Other factors weighing on Tesla include the economic slowdown in China, concerns about the consumer outlook in the US, emerging competition, and a major recall affecting over 300,000 EVs.
Ahead of Black Friday, one of the year biggest shopping days, discretionary retailers are in focus. From the likes of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), to big-box retailers such as Target (NYSE: TGT), the sector has been crunched year-to-date. Last week, Target unveiled a dour report, slashing its holiday-quarter guidance. However, inflation is now showing signs of slowing, despite stronger than expected sales. This week shopping bonanza could shed clues on the strength of the American consumer. Spending forecasts from Mastercard suggest this year Black Friday sales will be 15% higher than a year ago. It expects department stores to fare best, with sales tipped to rise 25%. Some retail stocks in focus include Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR), both of which report this week, and where guidance outlooks will be important.In the tech space, look out for earnings from key names. This includes Dell (NYSE: DELL), Zoom Video (NASDAQ: ZM), Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), HP (NYSE: HPQ), and Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK).Among ASX stocks, copper miner OZ Minerals (ASX: OZL) is on watch. That follows a takeover offer from BHP (ASX: BHP) last Friday. The company Board has recommended the offer of $28.25 per share, or $9.6 billion market cap. Shares in OZL ended last week approximately 3% below the takeover price, which implies modest doubts over the deal.On another note, property auction volumes showed some signs of strength over the weekend, up 4.4%. This resulted in the biggest auction weekend in nearly five months. With some signs that confidence is slowly returning to the housing market, property stocks could emerge on the radars of investors. The most widely recognised stocks in this space are Domain Holdings (ASX: DHG) and REA Group (ASX: REA), which are well off their highs.Another round of annual general meetings will be held this week. Expect updates from companies such as Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG), Star Entertainment (ASX: SGR), Mesoblast (ASX: MSB), WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC), Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN), Kogan (ASX: KGN), Nick Scali (ASX: NCK), New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC), and EML Payments (EML).
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