Markets Week Ahead: Commonwealth Bank opens earnings season
Rene Anthony
Geopolitical tension is the key watchpoint entering the new trading week, and it could have an impact on a number of different segments, just as investors turn their attention to ASX earnings season.
Economic Calendar and News
While the Australian economic calendar only features readings on consumer and business confidence this week, it a different story in the United States, where crucial inflation data is set to tell all.On Wednesday US-time the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.
In the last reading, month-on-month growth came in at 1.3%, while the year-over-year rate was 9.1%. Economists expect both numbers to have eased somewhat due to commodity prices sliding throughout the month, with consensus forecasts suggesting price growth of 0.2% and 8.7% respectively.
On the contrary, however, core inflation is tipped to rise from 5.9% year-over-year in June, to 6.1% last month.
A day later, investors can also expect news on the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the impact of inflation on retailers and manufacturers. Consensus figures also suggest growth in this area may have moderated last month, although a higher-than-expected reading could pose a stumbling block for the Federal Reserve, which is doing everything to try tame prices.The other big data-point this week is consumer sentiment, due Friday. The June reading indicated confidence was at a record low, so it remains to be seen whether confirmation of the second quarter of negative growth in the US will lead to further deterioration.
Stocks on watch
ASX earnings season is about to kick off in full spirit, with the first full week welcoming results from some well-known blue-chip names.
Aurizon Holdings (ASX: AZJ) and Suncorp (ASX: SUN) will open proceedings this morning, with the duo both in the news recently amid merger and acquisition activity. Rail operator Aurizon is in the midst of diversifying its operations towards bulk haulage, while Suncorp, dealing with a series of adverse weather events affecting its insurance operations, is looking to divest its banking division to none other than Big Four player ANZ (ASX: ANZ).Tuesday sees the likes of REA Group (ASX: REA) and Megaport (ASX: MP1) step up, with the former likely to shed light on the state of the property market and listing activity. But the pair are unlikely to remain in the headlines for long given Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) hands down full-year earnings for FY22 the following day. All eyes will be on the company net interest margins, with interest rate hikes providing a tailwind for the business, but loan growth and property prices also stumbling and expected to continue facing hurdles moving forward.The rest of the week will see results from AMP (ASX: AMP), Telstra (ASX: TLS), ResMed (ASX: RMD), as well as two more insurance players in QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE) and Insurance Australia Group (ASX: IAG), who will both surely indicate the extent that recent flooding has had on claims and premiums.In a major win for Lend Lease (ASX: LLC) that was years in the making, the construction firm has finally won planning approval for one of its key development projects across its European portfolio. Having been working five years to get the proposal over the line, the company is one step closer to kicking off a £1.3 billion development in north London.Over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) released its quarterly earnings, and it was no surprise the company attracted widespread attention. Run by The Oracle from Omaha', Warren Buffett, Berkshire managed to significantly increase its operating earnings, even though it took a big hit on its investment portfolio.
Total operating earnings for the conglomerate reached US$9.3 billion in the second quarter of 2022, which was 38.8% higher than a year ago. The drivers for that result were strong performances from its stake in businesses across the utilities, railroads, and insurance sectors.
On the other hand, with equity markets entering a tailspin throughout the period, Buffett reported a US$53 billion loss across the company investments, albeit this is a paper loss, and a figure the company regularly warns investors not to rely on given the volatility associated with the market. The company spent an additional US$1 billion repurchasing stock during the quarter, with over US$100 billion of cash still on its balance sheet after recently picking up energy and insurance assets.
As if the global semiconductor shortage wasn't already bad enough, the latest bout of geopolitical tension between China, Taiwan, and the US is threatening to derail the situation further. Late on Friday China suspended co-operation with the US on various issues following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi decision to visit Taiwan, which prompted a swarm of military exercises from China.
In the meantime, the boss of Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) recently spoke about his concerns the industry could face if China were to block semiconductor exports out of Taiwan, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry over the last 35 years. Intel CEO cited statistics that suggest as much as 80-90% of microchips found in smartphones come from Taiwan, with the US manufacturer now looking to Europe as means to diversify its value chain.There may also be complications for companies tied up in global supply chains, with almost half of the world container ships using the Taiwan Strait for passage year-to-date, and with shipping in this area now being rerouted. It remains to be seen how this might affect shipping and port stocks like Qube Holdings (ASX: QUB), Orient Overseas (HKG: 0316), COSCO Shipping Ports (HKG: 1199), China Merchants Port (HKG: 0144), Pacific Basin Shipping (HKG: 2343), and International Seaways (NYSE: INSW).And last but not least, in terms of other US stocks reporting this week, look out for results from BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD), Palantir (NYSE: PLTR), Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX), Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), Disney (NYSE: DIS), and Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU).
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