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Investment Solutions

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Markets Week Ahead: Can stocks rally through another RBA rate hike?

Rene Anthony

Saturday, July 30, 2022

Saturday, July 30, 2022

With another RBA rate hike effectively locked in, and ASX reporting season kicking off, will the recent market rally continue?

With another RBA rate hike effectively locked in, and ASX reporting season kicking off, will the recent market rally continue?

Futures suggest the Australian share market will start in positive territory this morning, casting aside doubts about the outlook of the global economy and an imminent rate hike from the RBA.

Economic Calendar and News

Hot on the heels of the US Federal Reserve, which last week increased interest rates by 75 basis points, it is the Reserve Bank of Australia turn in the spotlight this week.

The nation central bank is tipped to lift the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.85%, which would represent the third consecutive increase of this magnitude - an event that has never happened in Australia. 

Last week inflation data will also keep the door open to the prospect of a larger-than-expected rate hike, because while headline inflation was less than forecast, the country core inflation reading actually came in higher than the market expected, and this is used as the basis for RBA monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the RBA will publish its quarterly economic outlook on Friday, with its Statement on Monetary Policy all but certain to feature higher inflation forecasts.Other local economic data due this week includes job advertisements for July, home loans and building permits from June, construction activity, as well as the Balance of Trade.The US will turn its attention to the local jobs market just days after GDP data suggested the economy may already be in a recession following two straight readings of negative growth. While that would normally represent a recession, some onlookers have noted the strength of the labour market at this time, so all eyes will be trained on the latest employment data to see whether this still rings true.

Economists expect the US economy added between 250,000 and 300,000 jobs in July, which would be enough to see the unemployment rate remain steady at the pandemic-era low of 3.6%.

Also overseas, the Bank of England is set to raise rates by either 25 or 50 basis points.

With another RBA rate hike effectively locked in, and ASX reporting season kicking off, will the recent market rally continue?

Stocks on watch

Reporting season continues to ramp up in the US, with almost 150 S&P 500 companies due to release reports this week. Unlike last week focus on tech and energy, the names on watch this week come from a variety of sectors, although travel and healthcare are the highest-profile segments.

In the travel space, investors will have a better understanding as to how a surge in holiday plans, and associated logistical issues for airports and carriers, have translated into earnings for accommodation and mobility platforms. Uber (NYSE: UBER), Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG), Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE), and Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) will all release earnings this week, and the quartet should be reaping the benefits of a growing number of holiday-makers embarking overseas.Last week saw the likes of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) deliver huge record profits thanks to soaring energy prices. However, some of their peers will also follow suit in the coming days, including BP (NYSE: BP), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC), and EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG).At the same time, OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Wednesday to weigh up quotas for oil production, with the US pushing for member states to lift their output, and some of those members reportedly open to complying with that request. The ramifications could also have an impact on ASX-listed oil producers including Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS), Beach Energy (ASX: BPT), and Santos (ASX: STO).US biotech stocks also have a chance to shine this week as reports come from Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD), Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN), and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA). In the case of Moderna, its shares are well off their pandemic highs given the emergence of a weaker Omicron strain and associated sub-variants, although it recently landed a US$1.7 billion deal with the US government for an Omicron-specific vaccine.Dual-listed e-commerce giant Alibaba (HKG: 9988) is back in the news as the company was added by the US Securities and Exchange Commission to a list of Chinese firms that face delisting within three years from the US stock market. 

That follows a provision made under the last administration where US regulators must be able to inspect the financial audits of Chinese US-listed firms. Also weighing on the company is news co-founder Jack Ma is considering relinquishing control over the company fintech division, Ant. Alibaba reports earnings this week and some commenters expect it to report its first-ever negative quarterly growth in revenue.

PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) also has a date with shareholders this week, with the payments giant set to report second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, US-time. A shift back towards in-store shopping has hurt the company, with its growth slowing over recent time, and the company guiding for total payments volumes to grow by 15% to 17% this year, versus a prior forecast of 21% to 23%.Credit Corp (ASX: CCP) and Genworth Mortgage Insurance (ASX: GMA) are among the first stocks to kick off the August earnings period for the ASX, and both will shed light on how Australian households are managing their debts as interest rates rise.And while rates may be rising, government bonds have been rallying recently, with three-year and ten-year yields falling sharply from their recent highs in June. That may bring real estate stocks back into focus like Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), GPT Group (ASX: GPT), Scentre Group (ASX: SCG), and Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC).Across commodities, gold prices rallied into the week end, a positive for names such as Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), but weaker iron ore prices could soften demand for Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO).At the start of the new trading week investors may also be keeping a close eye on Zip (ASX: ZIP), Sayona Mining (ASX: SYA), Brainchip (ASX: BRN), Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN), and Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR), which all featured in the top 10 for volume traded on Friday.

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