Markets Week Ahead: Bear market woes put the spotlight on this week Fed rate hike
Rene Anthony
The ASX is staring down the barrel of a brutal sell-off when trading resumes on Tuesday morning following the long weekend. US markets were crushed on Friday, and then followed up with an even worse performance overnight, with investors anxious about a fresh inflation record, and the risk of a recession.
Economic calendar and news
This week US Federal Reserve meeting takes on even greater importance after fresh inflation data last week pointed to the fastest growth in consumer prices since 1981. Soaring energy and food prices were among the contributors as inflation hit 8.6% in May.
While the US central bank is all but certain to lift rates after having already done so at its previous meetings, it is the size of the rate hike that will be in focus.
The latest inflation data could leave the door open to a supersize rate hike, with some economists believing a 75 basis point increase could take place. Nonetheless, consensus figures suggest the Fed may lift rates 50 basis points at each of its next two Board meetings, but any surprise to the upside will keep investors on their toes.
Other data out of the US this week includes the producer price index (PPI), retail sales for May, exports and imports, business inventories, building permits and housing starts, as well as industrial production and capacity utilisation. Closer to home, business and consumer confidence are on watch, with both expected to reflect the impact of growing concerns about increasing prices, and an energy crisis spiralling out of control. The latest jobs figures will also flow through later in the week, with the May unemployment rate expected to remain steady on forecasts of a small gain in jobs across the economy.
Stocks on watch
With the Nasdaq plunging through its recent support level and setting a new yearly low, expect a lot of attention on the mega-tech names that hold the sway over things. Stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) are among those that are now well off their all-time highs. Each represents a large weight of the benchmark tech index as well.Gold prices are showing no signs of providing a refuge for safe-haven investors, with the precious metal sinking sharply in the US on Monday. The price of gold dropped around 3% overnight, with major gold miners like Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) also sagging despite ongoing concerns about inflation. That could also weigh on stocks like Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), and Regis Resources (ASX: RRL) when ASX trading resumes.Meanwhile, the buy-now pay-later segment could be in for more scrutiny this week after Apple last week effectively rolled out its own instalment service as an update across its iPhones, and with no fees for retailers or users. Shares in Affirm (NASDAQ: AFRM) and Block (NYSE: SQ) both plunged more than 12% overnight, setting up a strong negative lead for the likes of Zip (ASX: ZIP) and Sezzle (ASX: SZL), which are already as much as 90% off their all-time highs. Plunging bitcoin prices have put pressure on crypto mining stocks, which have continued to trend lower towards new 52-week lows. It has also left crypto exchange platform Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) reeling. One of the catalysts weighing on the price of bitcoin was news that Binance paused bitcoin withdrawals for several hours on Monday, citing a stuck transaction. Broader risk-off sentiment has also seen the asset class crushed as interest rates rise.Iron ore miners like Fortescue Metals (ASX: FMG), BHP (ASX: BHP), and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) could also find themselves at the mercy of a shift in sentiment. Already having to contend with the broader sell-off overseas, renewed COVID outbreaks in China have prompted Chinese authorities to restart mass testing, which could give rise to some uncertainty and risk around whether the government looks at lockdowns once again. In M&A news, there was further speculation in the media over the long weekend that logistics business Qube (ASX: QUB) could find itself a potential takeover target, alongside Aurizon (ASX: AZJ) rail division currently up for sale. Reports suggest private equity suitors might be among those interested in a potential tilt at the duo.Wrapping things up, there is sure to be more pain for the Big Four' banks at the start of the new trading week. That follows a horrid showing last week, with Westpac (ASX: WBC), Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), and other lenders hitting a wall as investors grow nervous about the economic outlook, property market outlook, and what it might mean for bad debts.
Important disclaimer: SelfWealth Ltd ABN 52 154 324 428 (“Selfwealth”) (AFSL 421789). The information contained on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser and/or accountant. Taxation, legal and other matters referred to on this website are of a general nature only and should not be relied upon in place of appropriate professional advice. You should obtain the relevant Product Disclosure Statement for any product mentioned and consider its contents before making any decision.