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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Bank earnings, inflation data pending

Rene Anthony

Saturday, July 8, 2023

Saturday, July 8, 2023

Another round of US earnings are before us, and forecasts suggest the steepest decline in corporate profits since the pandemic began.

Another round of US earnings are before us, and forecasts suggest the steepest decline in corporate profits since the pandemic began.

Key takeaways:

  • The ASX enters the new trading week circling a three-month low after bond yields jumped sharply higher

  • US earnings season opens with results from three of the largest banks in the world

After last week economic data heightened concerns that the US Federal Reserve may need to continue hiking interest rates, traders will focus on fresh inflation data as bond yields surge.

Economic Calendar and News

The resilience of the US jobs market has kept the focus on interest rates and bond yields, with the official unemployment rate decreasing from 3.7% to 3.6% in June, and hiring data suggesting the economy may need to cool further.  In the US, 10-year Treasury bonds finished the week at 4.07%. The last time they were trading this high was back in March, while before that it was September and October last year.On Wednesday US-time We'll be treated to a new assortment of inflation figures, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. 

According to consensus forecasts, consumer prices likely rose 0.3% last month, and 3.6% year-over-year. If so, that would represent the slowest annual growth in prices in more than two years. However, the focal point for policymakers is core inflation, where prices likely grew at a rate of 0.4% last month, and a much more sticky' rate of 5.2% on an annual basis.

A day later, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks inflation for manufacturers and wholesalers, is projected to have risen 0.2% last month, after falling 0.3% in May. On a more positive note, the annual rate is expected to show growth of just 0.4%, which would be the smallest increase since September 2020. At the height of the inflation crisis the PPI hit an annual rate of 11.7%.On home soil, RBA Governor Philip Lowe will speak at the Economic Society of Australia, where he will discuss The Reserve Bank Review and Monetary Policy

After last week RBA policy statement left the door open to further rate hikes, investors will be paying close attention for any further commentary that suggests the central bank could resume its rate hike campaign at its August Board meeting.

Also on the agenda this week, China releases its consumer price index and producer price index on Monday, the Bank of Canada is tipped to lift rates another quarter of a percent on Wednesday, but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold its cash rate steady at 5.5% on the same day. Out of the UK there will also be retail sales, jobless figures, trade numbers, and GDP data.Economists will also scour consumer confidence reports for both Australia and the US this week.

Stocks on watch

The start of the new trading week sees commodities in focus, which follows rallies for the likes of gold, copper, and oil during Friday evening offshore session.

Gold rallied as much as 1% before some of those gains were pared. Nonetheless, with renewed concerns about the US Federal Reserve rate hike campaign, gold stocks could be in the spotlight if the metal continues to climb higher. That means some names like Newmont (NYSE: NEM), Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) may find themselves on the watchlists of traders over the coming days.In terms of copper prices, the base metal clawed out a modest gain of its own, up about 1%. While the ASX features a relatively modest range of copper stocks outside small-cap names and the likes of Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR), there are US-listed names such as Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) and Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO) that may be hoping the copper price continues to climb after a recent sell-off.As far as action in the energy market, crude oil prices climbed 2.7% on Friday to a six-week high of about US$74 per barrel. That should be viewed positively by investors in companies like Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), Beach Energy (ASX: BPT), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), and BP (NYSE: BP), among others.The AFR is reporting that lithium juggernaut Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) could be prepared to make a move on dual-listed Patriot Battery Metals (ASX: PMT). Reports suggest the former has engaged RBC Capital Markets to assist it weigh up different proposals for the Canadian explorer, ranging from an equity stake, to joint ventures or even offtake agreements. 

Patriot lays claim to the Corvette Lithium Project in Quebec, and the company is expected to release an initial mineral estimate this month. Nonetheless, Patriot finds itself under fire in other quarters at the moment, with a short seller report published last week rocking the miner as it faced claims that its lithium reserves were materially less than stated.

Some of America largest financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), and BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) headline the start of earnings season in the US. Investors will focus squarely on deposit activity across the sector, which follows ruction across the bank industry several months ago. Naturally, the economic outlooks of the major banks will be closely monitored, as well as updates to loan loss reserves. 

With commercial real estate values, particularly offices under strain as major properties are sold at significant discounts, there may be some added scrutiny on upcoming repayment obligations and the potential for heavy losses if real estate loan books are written down. However, this is more likely to impact smaller US lenders who represent the vast majority of commercial real estate lending.  

Other earnings in focus this week include Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), and PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP).

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