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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Authorities race to shore up banking confidence

Rene Anthony

Saturday, March 18, 2023

Saturday, March 18, 2023

Ongoing concerns about the state of the global banking sector are expected to remain one of this week key focal points.

Ongoing concerns about the state of the global banking sector are expected to remain one of this week key focal points.

Key takeaways:

  • Swiss authorities broker a tie-up between UBS and besieged peer Credit Suisse 

  • Both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England are expected to look past bank fears and lift interest rates this week

Futures suggest the Australian share market faces a rocky start to the week, but markets will likely be swayed by efforts to shore up confidence in the global banking sector.

Economic Calendar and News

Monetary policy is the major event on the global economic calendar this week, with the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expected to bring about another rate hike.

Despite a banking blow-up over the last week or so, economists expect the Federal Reserve will push ahead with its monetary tightening campaign and lift the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Nonetheless, the door remains ajar as far as the prospect of a pause' from the Fed. 

With rates already rising by a cumulative total of 450 basis points since the Fed started hiking, last week bank failures indicate the fragile state of the global economy, particularly with inflation still sitting at elevated levels and central banks possessing few other options to curb growth in consumer prices.

The Federal Reserve is not the only central bank in the spotlight this week. Officials at the Bank of England (BoE) are also set to convene for their policy meeting on Thursday local time. Forecasts suggest the BoE will follow the path of the Fed and lift rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the highest level since 2008. That follows a 50 basis point hike by the European Central Bank last week.Other economic data set to trickle through includes new and existing US home sales for February, durable goods orders, as well as manufacturing activity.The only real event of significance on the Australian economic calendar this week is the release of the minutes from the RBA most recent Board meeting. Investors will be parsing the commentary for clues on whether the RBA might be prepared to dial back its rate hike program, however, the meeting was held before the recent storm affecting the banking sector, so the full story may be unclear until the central bank makes its next decision. 

Stocks on watch

Over the weekend the Swiss government pushed multinational investment bank UBS Group (NYSE: UBS) to acquire its under-fire peer Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS). The government, as well as regulators, laid down the groundwork by way of emergency measures so that a tie-up could occur quickly. 

UBS will acquire Credit Suisse for US$3.2 billion, where Credit Suisse shareholders will receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares they hold. The transaction prices Credit Suisse at less than half its value at the close of trade on Friday, which was already a historic low for the company.

It is believed that a transaction involving the two investment banks was viewed by Swiss authorities as the only viable option to shore up confidence in Credit Suisse - one of the world's globally systemic important banks - with earlier efforts providing billions of dollars in credit doing little to calm investor nerves. 

Meanwhile, UBS pushed for a series of concessions from regulatory authorities. This has resulted in a guarantee from the Swiss government to assume losses up to 9 billion Swiss francs from certain assets, and a loan of up to 100 billion Swiss francs from the nation central bank to support the takeover.

Meanwhile, US banks haven't escaped the public confidence crisis just yet, with First Republic (NYSE: FRC) still facing a tough road ahead despite a cohort of its larger peers injecting tens of billions of dollars into the bank in the way of deposits.Locally, this means Australian banks may continue to face some questions ahead. Regional lenders like Bank of Queensland (ASX: BOQ) and Bendigo Bank (ASX: BEN), as well as niche banks such as Virgin Money UK (ASX: VUK) and Judo Capital (ASX: JDO) are among those on watch as reverberations continue to swell. However, even the majors like Westpac (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB), and ANZ (ASX: ANZ) could attract more attention.

Elsewhere, energy stocks may be a talking point after the price of crude oil touched its lowest level since November, 2021. With a mild winter in Europe providing relief for governments, but concerns about the global economic outlook stymying demand, WTI futures finished trading last week at around US$66 per barrel. 

Renewed selling pressure could prove a headwind for some of the best performers from 2022, including Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), Santos (ASX: STO), Beach Energy (ASX: BPT), BP (NYSE: BP), and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).Already on a run, the price of gold surged even higher on Friday evening. The precious metal was last seen trading at US$1,989 per ounce, representing an 11-month high. That could provide extra encouragement for some of the winners from last week, such as Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), Silver Lake Resources (ASX: SLR), and Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR).Another potential area of focus over the coming days may be US tech stocks. Although panic swept through much of the stock market last week, the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.4% for the week, and the NYSE Fang + Index (NYSE: NYFANG) leapt 9%. The tech sector was largely fuelled by double-digit gains from the likes of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), with investors seemingly rotating back into big tech as Treasury yields nosedived. With the Fed also set to decide interest rates this week, there could be further movement in this sector. 

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