Key takeaways:

• The RBA is tipped to hold rates steady for the second consecutive month, but a surprise hike hasn’t been ruled out

• ASX earnings season commences this week with a slow trickle of names, at the same time US earnings reach fever pitch thanks to Apple

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Another positive Wall Street lead has ASX futures pointing towards gains at the opening bell, but the start of the local earnings season and an RBA decision will guide the market.

Economic Calendar and News

The key event on this week’s economic calendar is the August Board meeting for the Reserve Bank of Australia. 

In light of softer-than-expected inflation data, as well as retail trade data that pointed towards a slowdown in consumer spending, traders have slashed their expectations for another rate hike. 

Entering the new week, futures markets were suggesting a 75% chance of no change to the official cash rate of 4.1%. Nonetheless, there are still a number of analysts that believe a 25 basis point rate hike is a live possibility given Australia’s inflation is still far too high, underpinned by accelerating price growth across the services sector.

Also coming up this week is the RBA Chart Pack, which summarises macroeconomic and financial market trends in Australia and provides some information about developments for the country’s main trading partners.

The week concludes with the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which sets out the Bank’s assessment of current economic conditions, both domestic and international, along with the outlook for Australian inflation and output growth.

Elsewhere, look out for fresh data on housing credit, private sector credit, building permits, manufacturing and services activity, exports and imports, plus dwelling prices for the month of July. Economists believe house prices rose again over recent weeks, albeit at a slower rate than the month prior.

Overseas, the US Labor Department will publish fresh data on job openings, which are projected to have slumped from 9.8 million in May to 9.5 million in June. Wednesday will see the release of private sector payroll data, with forecasts calling for a gain of 210,000 payrolls in July. 

And the all-important nonfarm payrolls report for July will be unveiled on Friday, with observers looking for around 184,000 jobs added to the economy across July.

Staying overseas, the Eurozone will release gross domestic product (GDP) growth data on Monday. Later in the week, the Bank of England is set to hike rates by a quarter-of-a-percent to a level of 5.25%.

Stocks on watch

By far the biggest names on analysts watchlists will be tech titans Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), which both report on Thursday, US-time. Results from the duo should offer insights on consumer activity, albeit across different segments of the market.

For Apple, which is trading near a record high, the clear focus will be demand for the company’s flagship iPhone. There is also likely to be some scrutiny surrounding interest in the company’s new VR headset. On the other hand, for Amazon there will likely be some focus on overall growth across the e-commerce market, particularly amid recent cost-cutting. There may also be some commentary around the role that artificial intelligence (AI) could play in Amazon’s cloud division.

Sticking with the AI theme, semiconductor manufacturers Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) are also reporting this week. Amid signs of a rebound in global PC shipments, investors will be looking for clues as to whether these key industry players are seeing margin growth restored, and what level of engagement they are seeing from consumers in relation to AI uptake. 

Shifting attention to other US quarterly earnings coming up, and the leisure industry will be in focus as the likes of Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG), Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB), and Uber (NYSE: UBER) all report. 

The healthcare sector will be swayed by earnings from big pharma duo Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Merck (NYSE: MRK), while digital payments businesses PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) and Block (NYSE: SQ) also face an earnings season test. Oil major BP (NYSE: BP) is among the other high-profile results to watch in an action-packed week.

See which US stocks to look out for this earnings season, including the key points to watch.

On home soil, the ASX earnings season opens with a trio of results. Credit Corp (ASX: CCP) will open proceedings with its report on Tuesday, followed by BWP Trust (ASX: BWP) on Wednesday, and then dual-listed healthcare player ResMed (ASX: RMD) on Thursday.