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Investment Solutions

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Markets Week Ahead: AGL board set for showdown

Rene Anthony

Saturday, November 12, 2022

Saturday, November 12, 2022

With hopes growing the US Fed can scale down its rate hikes, can growth stocks build on last week run of form?

With hopes growing the US Fed can scale down its rate hikes, can growth stocks build on last week run of form?

Key takeaways:

  • Inflation will remain a pressing theme in the week ahead, with growth stocks benefitting from signs that consumer prices could be starting to cool - US retail earnings will provide further insights

Buoyed by Wall Street upbeat reaction to lower than expected inflation data, the Australian share market looks set to build on a five-month high.

Economic Calendar and News

On the local front, the Australian economic calendar will focus on just a handful of key events this week. That starts with the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia most recent Board meeting, where it maintained its dovish pivot in the face of red-hot inflation.A day later, economists will be poring over the wage price index, which is tipped to rise 3% on an annual basis, or 0.9% over the last quarter. By Thursday, We'll also have a better idea of how the jobs market is faring amid the fastest tightening in monetary policy in over 30 years.According to consensus forecasts, the Australian economy may have added as many as 15,000 jobs to the economy last month, which would translate into a steady unemployment rate of 3.5%.

Overseas, the story will largely centre on the reaction to last week encouraging inflation reading, where consumer prices moderated in October, growing by 7.7%, versus expectations of 8%. Although that number is still worrying on a number of fronts, the bond market viewed the result favourably as it may well have signalled a peak for inflation. Treasury 10-year yields fell more than 30 basis points to 3.81% after the CPI report.

A number of officials from the Federal Reserve will speak in the week ahead, and they are highly likely to be probed about their thoughts around monetary policy after the CPI data. It may well be the case that the result allows the world largest central bank to begin scaling back the size of its rate hikes, with one option being a downgrade to 50 basis points from next month.Feeding into that decision will be the October retail sales report, due Wednesday, US-time. It is expected to show retail sales increased by 1.2%, up from a flat reading the month prior.Later in the week, real estate data includes building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales. With interest rates soaring in the US, these numbers are expected to show weakness.

There is also the small matter of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and China President Xi Jinping, where encouraging dialogue could be positive for markets.

Stocks on watch

Tech stocks are almost certain to be a focal point over the coming days, with the sector producing a 10% rally in the US last week. One of the leaders was Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), which also gained ground on news that it plans to significantly reduce its headcount and pare back operating expenses. Its cause may have also been helped by the struggles that Twitter is currently facing, including the prospect that it picks up advertising revenue from clients that have suspended ads with Twitter in the wake of Elon Musk takeover.  Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was another name that propelled the tech sector higher last week, gaining more than 8%. Its performance on Thursday delivered the single-largest daily increase in market cap in history, when its valuation surged by over US$190 billion. For momentum to continue across the market, the company will almost certainly need to follow up with another strong performance. Elsewhere, Australia's largest electricity generator AGL (ASX: AGL) is in the spotlight thanks to its annual general meeting tomorrow. The company is currently in the midst of a battle with Mike Cannon-Brookes regarding the appointment of several independent' directors to its Board, with the latter winning over influential proxy advisors, with expectations that three of the four nominees will be approved.Whichever way the outcome goes, last week takeover bid for Origin Energy (ASX: ORG), ironically by one of AGL former joint-suitors, has spelled out that significant capital will be required as part of the transition to renewables. It has also raised questions as to how competitive AGL might be over the coming years against what looms as a formidable competitor backed by $20 billion in spending power for renewables.Among other AGM news this week, Flight Centre (ASX: FLT) will brief investors today, lithium producer Allkem (ASX: AKE) follows suit tomorrow, while the rest of the week includes updates from Beach Energy (ASX: BPT), Medibank (ASX: MPL), Altium (ASX: ALU), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), Seek (ASX: SEK), Sonic Healthcare (ASX: SHL), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), LendLease (ASX: LLC), and NextDC (ASX: NXT).Meanwhile, there are still some final ASX results set to trickle through, with Elders (ASX: ELD) handing down its FY22 figures today, and chemicals and fertilisers business Incitec Pivot (ASX: IPL) due to report tomorrow. 

The duo have been at the centre of what has been a volatile time for the agriculture sector over recent months since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. 

On Thursday, look out for earnings from Webjet (ASX: WEB), which will provide more insights on how the travel sector is performing in the lead up to the all-important holiday season.Overseas, retailers come into focus as the likes of Walmart (NYSE: WMT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Target (NYSE: TGT), and Macy (NYSE: M) report earnings this week. These results will provide the biggest clue yet on how consumers are coping with record inflation and soaring interest rates, and for investors, this could go some way towards determining whether the market rally can continue.

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