Markets Week Ahead: AGL demerger scuppered, Biden calls on Bubs infant formula, M&A targets semiconductor sector
Rene Anthony
After the US stock market posted its best weekly result since November, 2020, the Australian share market looks set to open sharply higher this morning. A number of companies are in the spotlight on corporate news, while commodities are in focus as China sets the course for several of its cities to exit lockdowns.
Economic calendar and news
In the US, job growth is expected to moderate after supersized gains over recent months. Economists' forecasts suggest around 325,000 jobs may have been added to the US economy in May, easing from the 428,000 recorded in both April and March. The unemployment rate is tipped to ease to a new pandemic-era low of 3.5%, and a modest increase is on the cards for average hourly earnings, with consensus figures pointing to 0.4% growth month-on-month
None of these figures are believed to be likely to sway the Federal Reserve thinking in terms of monetary policy. Inflation is the big-ticket item at this time. However, if these subdued trends play out over a period of time, that could change the equation.
Several Fed Reserve officials will deliver speeches on the US economy and monetary policy this week. The central bank will also publish its Beige Book', which is an assessment of economic activity across the various regions of the US.Other data emerging from the world largest economy includes job openings, manufacturing and services activity, as well as consumer confidence.Another international data-point will be Eurozone inflation, which is on track for another record. That comes as the European Central Bank prepares to meet in June to discuss interest rates. Governors of various EU countries will speak one last time this week before a blackout period.Locally, Australia first-quarter GDP is tipped to be less than 1%, weighed down by the impact of the Omicron strain, as well as natural disasters that plagued the east coast earlier in the year.Nonetheless, the wages component of the data will be something that guides the RBA on policy. While financial pundits expect the data to show signs of pressure building, Australia remains in a very different spot compared with overseas markets, so it is unlikely to influence the RBA.
Stocks on watch
All the talk this morning is centred on AGL Energy (ASX: AGL), which has withdrawn its demerger proposal in light of high-profile opposition and a lack of support for its proposal. The plan, which management claims would have offered the best value for shareholders, failed to get off the ground after Mike Cannon-Brookes took a major shareholder position in the company in order to block the vote.
The outcome has put AGL in a position where it will need to go back to the drawing board to assess its options. It also leaves the door open for a renewed bid from suitors like Cannon-Brookes and Brookfield after their initial bids were deemed to be well short of the mark. At the same time, the company has also put forward wholesale changes to its Board and management line-up.
News out of Shanghai over the weekend indicates the city will lift its two-month lockdown this week. Beijing has also pushed ahead with opening some of its commercial venues, providing more signs the country may be preparing to live' with the virus. It may be a positive catalyst for iron ore miners like BHP (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG), as it could signal a pick-up in heavy industry, which draws on steel, and in turn, iron ore.The news could also be viewed as a positive for Hong Kong-listed stocks. That comes after names like Alibaba (HKG: 9988), Baidu (HKG: 9888), Kuaishou (HKG: 1024) and NetEase (HKG: 9999) all reported earnings to a warm reception. Some HK-listed companies like electric vehicle manufacturer BYD (HKG: 1211) have been able to defy the odds and actually post sales growth despite the recent impact of lockdowns in China. Investors could find themselves mulling the prospect of accelerating growth if the lifting of lockdowns means one less constraint impacting supply chains.Crude oil prices hit their highest level since early March, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures trading around US$115 per barrel heading into the weekend. Elevated oil prices have been a driving force for bumper profits among oil majors like BP (NYSE: BP), and it has even prompted the UK government to introduce a 25% windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas firms. Quickly, however, BP announced it would review all North Sea investments in response to the news. While the new federal government in Australia has distanced itself from a similar move, companies like Woodside Petroleum (ASX: WPL), Santos (ASX: STO) and Beach Energy (ASX: BPT) are set to reap the benefits of high energy prices.The infant formula sector is suddenly back in the spotlight once again, albeit this time the spark has come from a shortage in the US amid contamination issues. It looks like there is at least one Australian company set to capitalise on the circumstances, with junior producer Bubs Australia (ASX: BUB) set to export 1.25 million tins (27.5 million bottles) of infant formula to the US. The company has received discretionary FDA approval, while the deal received coverage by President Biden in a tweet late on Friday US-time.One of last week biggest movers in the US was cloud-computing company VMware (NYSE: VMW), which attracted a takeover bid from semiconductor manufacturer and designer Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO). Valuing the company at US$61 billion, it is the largest-ever M&A transaction in the microchip sector.
VMware shareholders have been offered the choice of either $US142.50 in cash per share, or 0.2520 shares in Broadcom for every share in VMware they currently hold. At the time of writing, the share price of VMW is still some 10% below the takeover bid.
And finally, there is just the one ASX IPO this week. Nordic Nickel (ASX: NNL), held over from last week, will debut on Wednesday. It has raised $12 million for exploration activity focusing on high-purity Class 1 nickel sulphides in Finland.
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