Market Crashes: What You Can Control, ft. Anirban Mahanti
Owen Raszkiewicz
Is the stock market crashing?
Why are my stocks getting crushed?
Is Crypto dead?
Is it just me or is there always something to worry about? Every day, a newer, uglier 'crisis' presents.
So how do we deal with it?
https://youtu.be/9w-qbgZHwYM
In the latest Selfwealth Live session, on Selfwealth's YouTube channel, I spoke with 7Investing Lead Advisor Dr Anirban Mahanti to talk about the stock market sell-off, technology investing and lots more.
Anirban is the former Director of Research at The Motley Fool Australia and is now a lead Investment Advisor for 7Investing.
In addition to answering your questions, Anirban and I spoke about the rise and rise and rise of Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Anirban makes the case for innovative cybersecurity firm Zscaler Inc (NASDAQ: ZS).
Here are my key takeaways from the session and the market right now.
1. Markets climb the 'Wall of Worry'
There's always something to worry about.
The phrase 'markets climb the wall of worry' is a reference to there always being something to worry about.
If it's not the Ukraine invasion by Russia, it's the China-Taiwan tensions, US inflation, or climate change.
These may be very real concerns, but as individual investors, we have very little influence (good or bad) over the outcome (nor are we very good as predicting them).So does our worry really have that big of a big impact? I don't think so. Just do a historical internet search with "asx 200" or "market crash" and you'll see what I mean.
I find comfort in knowing that the stock market has been the best place to for long-term focused investors (10+ year investors) -- since the 1800s. And in that time we've had countless wars, terror attacks, toppled Governments, communism and more.
2. Innovation is key.
As Dr Anirban Mahanti says often, innovation should be a focal point for long-term investors. Especially those looking to identify the best technology companies on the planet.
Looping back through point #1, innovation is what enables new companies (or existing firms) to create more value for their customers and society. Through their innovation, whether it's technology or something else, more problems get solved. It works because capitalism dangles an incentive in front of us as we move forward.
Companies are simply tribes of people working together to create value.
In practice, Anirban uses academic papers, industry insiders or trade journals to identify the latest and greatest in technology.
3. Apple is... a beast.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) is a leader in hardware (think iPhone, iPad, Mac, etc.). We all know that.
But Apple is now a world leader in wearables, subscriptions and so much more.
Apple's management took one of the world's most powerful brands and leveraged it by pushing itself into key markets like gaming, payments, cloud storage and (rumour has it, maybe one day) self-driving cars.
This type of embedded brand strength and loyalty has almost always been underestimated by investors.
4. Headlines are scary.
Jason Zweig, the famous Wall Street Journal (WSJ) columnist and author, is paid by the WSJ to write the same thing 200 different ways every year.
In other words, he knows the true values of wealth creation (low costs, regular investments, diversification, etc.) don't change. It's the news headlines that change.
Given our monkey brains are wired to be worried about market declines (see "loss aversion") and the hunter-gatherer mentality of 'fight or flight' kicks in by nature, many people are captivated by the most negative investment headlines.
The reality, however, is that the most important news events are extremely rare. Meaning that it's extremely rare a financial news headline written today will translate to an overhaul of a well-laid long-term wealth strategy, such as dollar-cost averaging into ETFs. Sure, you might tweak it from time to time. But most often, the best portfolios are tied to long-term wealth creation goals -- not news headlines one year to the next.
So forge a plan and stick to it because it's the plan that not only helps you stay afloat in a crisis -- but allows you to take advantage of it.
5. Core strength is the most important
No, I'm not your fitness instructor...
How you build and rebalance the Core of your portfolio is considered by most professionals to be the single most important decision for long-term wealth creation.In the Core of your portfolio, you've got low-cost diversified ETFs (covering stocks and bonds), index funds, blue-chip shares and/or cash. Then, around the outside, you can indulge in your most risky/speculative bets like individual shares or high-growth stocks.
Studies by Vanguard suggest that the 'Strategic Asset Allocation' decisions (otherwise known as SAA or 'your Core') could account for ~90% of the long-term returns from a balanced portfolio.
That is, not 'which stocks should I buy or sell today' but 'do I need a larger or smaller allocation to Australian shares?'
A traditionally balanced portfolio might have 60% stocks and 40% bonds, spread across multiple ETFs, funds and individual positions. During a crisis the stocks might fall to 50%. To get it back into balance means tipping 50% of the bonds back into stocks (at lower prices). You can probably see why even the simplest investment plans can lead to long-term success.
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