ASX Week Ahead: RBA rate cut speculation and US presidential debate to guide markets
Rene Anthony
ASX futures are pointing to a positive start for the local market this week, with the US market reversing early losses on Friday evening to close sharply higher. After news of proposed changes to responsible lending rules propped bank shares late last week, the sector is likely to be watched closely over the coming days, as will the likelihood of a rate cut from the RBA next week. Adding to the fold will be the first presidential debate in the US, which could influence trading sentiment from the middle of the week.
Economic calendar and news
With the Federal Budget set to follow next week, the coming days are likely to see media scrutiny around some of the potential announcements that might be flagged. Nonetheless, from a calendar perspective, the main news releases this week will be building permits and private sector credit data on Wednesday morning, manufacturing activity on Thursday, and then the final figures for retail sales across August on Friday morning.Perhaps the biggest influence on global markets this week will be two events out of the US. The first presidential debate between incumbent President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is pencilled in for Wednesday morning Australian time. Given the policy differences between the two candidates, market watchers are likely to be tuned in to which candidate comes out on top at the end of the debate. Later in the week, US unemployment figures for September will be published on Friday evening, although a preview of this may be on show a couple days earlier when private business hiring data is released.
ASX major movers
After a weekend where lockdown restrictions were only gradually lifted in Melbourne, there may be little direct impact on ASX-listed stocks. However, renewed discussions around a travel bubble between New Zealand and New South Wales have picked up momentum, which alongside with the ongoing suppression of the virus across Australia, could help lift sentiment for travel stocks such as Auckland International Airport (ASX: AIA), Sydney Airport (ASX: SYD) and Webjet (ASX: WEB).As mentioned earlier, the proposed easing of responsible lending rules for institutions such as the banks could draw further discussion this week. That means the likes of NAB (ASX: NAB), as well as ANZ (ASX: ANZ), which both outperformed last week, could still be in focus again as investors and traders weigh up the ramifications of such a legislative adjustment.Shares in A2 Milk (ASX: A2M) are on track for a sour start to the week after the dairy marketing business advised the market that Victoria lockdown and ongoing national border restrictions have disrupted the lucrative daigou' sales segment. As a result, the company expects sales across ANZ to be materially below plan in the first half of the financial year.While the price of gold has been under some pressure, and is now down more than 10% from record highs in early August, gold miners continue to trade at lofty price-to-earnings valuations, but could see buying support should the price of the precious metal regain some lost ground. It also comes as the Australian dollar fell abruptly last week on dovish commentary from the RBA.A significant number of stocks will trade ex-dividend this week, including ETFs from the likes of Vanguard, SPDR and iShares. This extends to popular funds like the Vanguard Diversified High Growth Index ETF (ASX: VDHG), SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Fund (ASX: STW) and iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV), to name but a few. REITs such as Centuria Industrial (ASX: CIP), Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (ASX: CLW) and Cromwell Property (ASX: CMW) are also trading ex-dividend this week.Rounding things out, having delivered FY20 earnings that were received warmly by the market last week, Washington H. Soul Pattinson (ASX: SOL) is trading at a 52-week high, alongside other names such as Healius (ASX: HLS) and Sealink Travel Group (ASX: SLK).
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