ASX Trading Wrap: Origin Energy takeover to unlock Australia energy transition
Rene Anthony
Key takeaways:
Signs that inflation may have peaked in the US lit a fuse under the share prices of just about every growth stock, from tech to commodities, and everything else in between.
M&A activity is taking centre stage as suitors chase high-profile companies like Origin Energy and Perpetual.
Wall Street remarkable overnight rally has powered the local market to a five-month high as investors pivot to risk-on' amid signs US inflation may have peaked.
Which shares excelled?
This week biggest corporate story, gas giant Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) received an $18.4 billion takeover bid from Canada Brookfield Asset Management and MidOcean Energy. The offer, at $9 per share, was a 55% premium versus the company last trading price before the news broke. After rejecting two initial advances, Origin has since agreed to open its books to the buyout team for due diligence, with the intent to recommend the offer to shareholders should it receive a binding offer.
As part of the deal, one of the largest in Australia corporate history, Origin would be split in two, with separate focuses on electricity generation and gas production. One of the key themes driving interest in the company is Origin exposure and role in Australia energy transition, with Brookfield prepared to invest up to $20 billion over the coming years to build out renewables capacity and storage. Meanwhile, MidOcean would acquire exposure to Origin LNG export operations.
Sticking with M&A news, and fund manager Perpetual (ASX: PPT) is still a hot topic after rebuffing the advances of Barings Private Equity Asia last week. However, the consortium returned with an improved offer of $33 per share, representing a 10% improvement.
Perpetual management wasted no time making their thoughts clear, once again putting forward the view that the offer materially undervalues' the company. It also appears the fund manager could be trying to distance itself from an earlier bid for Pendal, requesting a delay for the court hearing of its Scheme Implementation.
Gold stocks have had a week to remember, even before taking into account the Friday rally. Prices for the precious metal have gained around 8% for the week, hitting an 11-week high as broader commodity strength, and signs of a potential inflation peak buoyed trading.
There are no shortage of winners from the gold sector this week, including Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), Regis Resources (ASX: RRL), De Grey Mining (ASX: DEG), Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR), Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS), and Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), among others.Copper prices ended last week in blistering fashion, gaining more than 8% as traders increased their bets that China could soon depart from its stringent COVID-zero approach. Over recent days, sentiment has continued to improve across the sector, and that has been a tailwind for beaten-down producer Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR), which has delivered a strong double-digit return this week.Elsewhere, iron ore stocks have also gained the upper hand, playing a significant role in the broader rally across the ASX. One of the key catalysts for the move was regulatory support for Chinese property developers, providing a positive backdrop for steel demand, and lifting iron ore futures to a two-week high. Leading the way from this sector has been Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), which is also benefitting from its lithium exposure.
Which shares dragged on the market?
They may have had a meteoric run in 2022, but coal stocks are starting to sport an end-of-year hangover, with names like New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC), Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC), and Stanmore Resources (ASX: SMR) all among this week underperformers.
One of the catalysts sparking the about-change was news that Whitehaven downgraded its FY23 production guidance due to inclement weather. Discussion about windfall taxes for the sector has also dented confidence this week, although the government has indicated it would prefer to avoid such an option.
Earlier in the week, shares in building materials supplier James Hardie (ASX: JHX) tumbled after the company reported its half-year results. For the half ending September 30, the company recorded a 14% rise in sales, while net profits surged by 22%. However, the results also indicated a slowdown, with the two quarters in question signalling moderating sales and profits, leading management to not only downgrade its guidance for FY23, but also axe the company dividend.Another name with a post-earnings shock is accounting software firm Xero (ASX: XRO). It shed nearly 11% of its market cap on Thursday alone, with news of its CEO departing the firm unsettling investors. At the same time, Xero figures fell short of expectations, with subscriber growth, particularly in the UK, a concern.Back to fund manager Pendal Group (ASX: PDL), and as mentioned earlier, the company proposed takeover by Perpetual now has a cloud hanging over it. Although there are still legal obligations in play, Perpetual request to delay a court meeting for the deal raised eyebrows, especially as it draws attention from a suitor of its own.
We'll be back next week with another Weekly ASX Trading Wrap Up - until then, have a great week!
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